“亚博APP”特朗普的贸易代表与中国面临的困境2021-03-31 00:35

本文摘要:SHANGHAI — As a top trade official, he limited the Japanese cars and steel coming into the United States. He halted talks with China on a deal that would encourage investment between the two countries. And he tried to give American exporte


SHANGHAI — As a top trade official, he limited the Japanese cars and steel coming into the United States. He halted talks with China on a deal that would encourage investment between the two countries. And he tried to give American exporters an edge with special tax breaks.上海——他曾作为最低贸易官员对日本汽车和钢铁转入美国加以容许。他曾中断过与中国的谈判,而该谈判将不会达成协议一项增进两国间投资的协议。

他曾企图通过类似税收免除,让美国出口商取得优势。When it comes to problems troubling working-class Americans and manufacturers, Robert Lighthizer, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s nominee for trade representative, has historically blamed the United States’ trading partners, advocating aggressive retaliation for what he regards as widespread abuses of free-trade rules.在牵涉到到后遗症工薪阶级美国人和制造商的问题时,候任总统唐纳德·J·特朗普的美国贸易代表奖提名人罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)一贯的作法是谴责美国的贸易伙伴,对那些在他显然是大范围欺诈自由贸易规则的不道德,他主张给与其强有力的背叛。

It is a philosophy that he developed in the 1980s as a deputy United States trade representative and fine-tuned in the decades-long career that followed as the main trade lawyer for the American steel industry. Now he appears ready to train that focus sharply on China.这种待人态度,是他在20世纪80年代兼任美国副贸易代表时构成的,在后来作为美国钢铁行业主要贸易律师几十年的职业生涯中,获得了更进一步完备。现在,他显然早已准备好要把精力集中于到对付中国上来。“It seems clear that the U.S. manufacturing crisis is related to our trade with China,” Mr. Lighthizer said in testimony to a congressional commission in 2010.“这显然很显著,美国的制造业危机同我们与中国的贸易有关,”2010年,莱特希泽在一个国会委员会的听证会上说道。Over the years, Mr. Lighthizer has consistently taken the position that foreign countries are subsidizing their exporters while quietly but systematically blocking imports to protect jobs in their own countries. His answer is to pursue a long list of trade measures limiting America’s imports — even if those actions may be barely permissible, if at all, under World Trade Organization rules.多年来,莱特希泽一贯的观点是,为维护国内的就业机会,外国仍然对其出口商给与补贴,并同时在暗地系统地制止进口。

他的对策是寻找一系列贸易措施,容许美国的进口,即使世界贸易组织的规定只是只得许可那样做到,况且这种作法有可能得到许可。“To attack a problem as large as our trade deficit with China, U.S. officials must be prepared, at a minimum, to consider very aggressive positions at the W.T.O.,” he said.他说道,“为了解决问题像我们与中国的贸易赤字这样大的问题,美国官员必需有所准备,最少要考虑到在世界贸易组织作出十分声势浩大的回应。

”The choice of Mr. Lighthizer — and the trade tensions it underscores — leaves China in a difficult spot. He is part of a group of Trump trade appointees with close links to exactly the kinds of metal-bashing old-economy industries in which China faces the greatest overcapacity, and the toughest choices about how to close factories and lay off workers. Restrictions on exports to the United States will make those choices even harder for China.奖提名莱特希泽为贸易代表,以及这一自由选择凸显的紧绷贸易关系,让中国正处于一种艰苦的境地。特朗普奖提名的贸易专员还包括莱特希泽和其他人,他们都与以传统金属制造居多的旧经济产业有密切关系,而中国刚好在这些产业面对仅次于的生产能力不足问题,以及如何重开工厂和让工人下岗的最棘手自由选择。

容许这些工业向美国的出口将使中国的自由选择更为艰难。Wilbur Ross, the billionaire investor who is Mr. Trump’s choice to become commerce secretary, made large chunks of his fortune in steel and auto parts, two huge industries that in China are ramping up exports. Peter Navarro, the head of the new White House office overseeing trade and industrial policy, is a vociferous critic of globalization who has contended that American purchases of imported goods at Walmart are helping China pay for nuclear-tipped missiles aimed at the United States.特朗普的商业部长人选是亿万富翁投资家威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross),他的财富有一大部分就是指钢铁和汽车零件产业赚来的,中国的这两个行业十分可观,同时也在大幅度减少这类产品的出口。新的白宫的贸易和工业政策办公室负责人彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)是一位激烈抨击全球化的人,他声称,美国人在沃尔玛出售进口商品,是在协助中国为生产针对美国的具有核弹头的导弹佢。

The timing is bad for China.这对中国来说时机很差。The Chinese economy is slowing despite vast amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Big manufacturers in most industries are struggling with overcapacity, pushing them to sell goods overseas at cut-rate, even money-losing prices, just to cover their operating costs. Mr. Lighthizer has argued for years that the United States should keep out goods made with government subsidies or sold below the full cost of making them.尽管有大量的财政和货币性刺激措施,中国的经济仍在上升。大多数行业的大型制造商都在希望解决问题生产能力不足的问题,被迫他们以极低、甚至亏损的价格向海外销售商品,只要能挽回他们的运营成本。莱特希泽多年来仍然主张,美国应当不想用政府补贴生产出来的商品入境,或不想以高于全部成本的价格销售的商品入境。

“Trump naming him makes me worry the U.S. will carry out more rigid measures on trade and investment,” said Wei Jianguo, a former vice minister of commerce.曾兼任过中国商务部副部长的魏建国说道,“特朗普任命他,这让我担忧美国将对贸易和投资采行更加严苛的措施。”Exports are important for China. It consistently sells $4 worth of goods to the United States for each $1 of imports. That mismatch has produced a bilateral trade surplus for China equal to about 3 percent of the country’s entire economy, creating tens of millions of jobs.出口对中国很最重要。长期以来,中国每进口1美元的东西,就向美国出售价值4美元的东西。这种差异给中国带给的巨额双边贸易顺差大约占到中国整个经济的3%,建构了数千万个就业机会。

The benefits to China from that surplus have been increasing rapidly in the past few years. Many exporters have stopped importing components and switched to increasingly capable local suppliers for everything from high-quality steel to advanced computer chips. Multinationals have moved entire supply chains to China, and transferred the technology to run them.在过去几年中,这个贸易顺差给中国带给的益处仍然在很快快速增长。许多中国出口商已暂停进口零部件,改回从更加有能力的当地供应商获得一系列产品,从高品质钢材到高级计算机芯片,不一而足。

跨国公司已将整个供应链移往到中国,并将技术转让给中国来运营这些供应链。Many Democrats and many economists have also become increasingly disenchanted with the effect on American workers and the American economy. The Obama administration filed a long series of trade cases at the W.T.O. against China, although they involved fairly narrow policies and limited categories of goods. It has been preparing more, filing the latest trade case on Thursday over Chinese subsidies to aluminum producers.对于这个问题给美国工人和美国经济带给的影响,许多民主党人和经济学家也更加反感。奥巴马政府向世界贸易组织递交了长长的一大串针对中国的贸易案件,虽然这些案件所牵涉到的政策不多,所牵涉到的商品类别也很受限。

奥巴马政府仍然在打算更好的案子,政府本周四递交的近期贸易案针对的是中国对铝生产商的补贴。If Mr. Trump goes even further in that direction, Mr. Lighthizer will bring a long background in such actions.如果特朗普在这个方向更进一步的话,莱特希泽在采行这类行动方面有很很深的背景。

When he was in the Reagan administration, Mr. Lighthizer was the deputy United States trade representative overseeing industrial policy in old-economy industries like cars and steel. Since then, Mr. Lighthizer has mainly been filing anti-subsidy and anti-dumping trade cases against imports on behalf of the American steel industry.莱特希泽在里根政府供职时,是美国的副贸易代表,负责管理汽车和钢铁等原有经济产业的产业政策。那以后,莱特希泽主要代表美国钢铁业控告反补贴和反倾销贸易案件。“He’s the best negotiator I’ve ever worked with on policies involving trade or tax policy,” said Timothy Regan, Mr. Lighthizer’s chief of staff in the Reagan administration and now the senior vice president of global government affairs at Corning.“在有关贸易政策或税收政策上,他是我曾与之共事的人中最差的谈判者,”莱特希泽在里根政府的办公室主任蒂莫西·雷根(Timothy Regan)说道,雷根现在是康宁(Corning)全球政府事务高级副总裁。Mr. Lighthizer led successful efforts in the 1980s to force Japan to accept curbs on exports of cars and steel to the United States. Both were bold moves, particularly given that President Reagan at times espoused free trade. But when the W.T.O. was created the next decade, member nations agreed, with a few exceptions, to renounce imposing such export limits on other countries.在20世纪80年代,莱特希泽顺利领导的行动被迫日本拒绝接受了对美国出口汽车和钢铁的容许。


The auto industry could be ripe for action again. China is an enormous exporter of auto parts to the United States. Under President Obama, trade tensions over automotive trade have already risen, and the Obama administration has won two W.T.O. cases. The cases forced China to abandon certain anti-dumping and anti-subsidy taxes on American autos and to dismantle a few, fairly narrow subsidies.在汽车行业采行这种行动的时机有可能早已成熟期。中国目前向美国出口了数量极大的汽车零部件。在奥巴马总统领导下,在汽车贸易问题上的贸易紧绷关系早已下降,奥巴马政府夺得了两个递交到世界贸易组织的案件。这些案件被迫中国退出了对美国汽车征税某些反倾销和反补贴税,并中止了一些涉及面非常狭小的补贴。

“He was squarely in the trade talks with Japan,” said He Weiwen, a former commerce ministry official who is now a senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, an influential Beijing research group, “so maybe Donald Trump wants him to do something similar on China.”“他在与日本展开的贸易谈判中直截了当,”前商务部官员何伟文说道,何伟文现在是北京有影响力的研究机构中国与全球化智库的高级研究员,“所以,或许唐纳德·特朗普想要让他对中国做到类似于的事情。”The intersection of tax and trade is a specialty of Mr. Lighthizer, who was an architect of a Reagan administration initiative to cut corporate taxes for exporters. He was previously chief of staff at the Senate Finance Committee, overseeing tax policy.税收与贸易的交叉是莱特希泽的专长,他是里根政府为出口商减少公司所得税方案的设计者。那之前,他曾在参议院财政委员会兼任办公室主任,负责管理税收政策。


In the Reagan administration, he pushed the limits of what is permissible under international trade rules. His plan allowed many American exporters to reduce their taxes by setting up overseas companies to manage their foreign sales. But the W.T.O. eventually torpedoed the effort after a challenge by the European Union in the late 1990s.在里根政府时期,他曾挑战国际贸易规则许可的边界。他的计划能让许多美国出口商增加税额,方式是创立海外公司,管理他们在海外的销售。但欧盟在上世纪90年代明确提出批评后,世界贸易组织最后让这种希望告终。

Republicans now appear to be taking a similar — albeit more ambitious — tack. They are exploring how to raise corporate taxes for importers and use the extra revenue to reduce taxes for all other companies.现在,共和党人或许在采行某种程度的策略——尽管极具野心。他们在探寻如何提升针对进口商的企业税,利用这种额外税收增加其他企业的税收。China, as the biggest exporter to the United States, would face a major blow. But it would also affect American retailers, electronics companies and other multinationals that depend on supplies from anywhere overseas.作为美国仅次于的出口国,中国将面对根本性的压制。

但这项计划也不会影响美国的零售商、电子产品企业,以及其他倚赖海外供应的跨国公司。A big obstacle for Republicans is whether the W.T.O. would declare such a tax to be a trade barrier. China and Europe effectively penalize imports by imposing a type of national sales tax, an approach the W.T.O. has approved. It is a steep 17 percent in China.共和党人面对的众多障碍是,世界贸易组织否不会宣告征税这样的税收是设置贸易壁垒的不道德。


But House Republicans, leery of imposing any new national taxes, want to change existing corporate tax laws instead. W.T.O. rules discourage, although they do not necessarily prohibit, modifying corporate taxes in ways that penalize imports.然而,众议院共和党人对产生任何新的全国性税收都存在顾虑,作为替代,他们想要转变现存的企业税制度。世贸组织的规则不希望以容许进口的方式转变企业所得税,尽管他们不一定禁令这么做到。The W.T.O. review process, though, is lengthy. So Mr. Lighthizer and Congress could well go ahead with the tax plan, lightening the tax burden for American manufacturers as well as inflicting plenty of damage on China and the global supply chain.只是,世贸组织的评审过程十分漫长。

所以莱特希泽和国会几乎可以之后这项税收计划,减低美国制造业的税收开销,同时给中国和全球供应链带给极大的伤害。And the W.T.O.’s response — if it found the plan invalid — would not have much heft. Mostly, the global trade group could authorize Beijing to impose trade restrictions on the United States’ much smaller exports to China.世贸组织的反应——即便它判决这项计划违宪——也会产生过于大影响。这个全球性的贸易组织多半会许可北京对美国规模大得多的对华出口业务展开贸易容许。

That prospect does not scare Mr. Lighthizer very much, as he made clear in his 2010 testimony.这一前景不太会让莱特希泽深感惧怕,他在2010年的证词中就指出了这一点。“W.T.O. commitments are not religious obligations,” Mr. Lighthizer said, and violations “are not subject to coercion by some W.T.O. police force.”“世贸组织的誓约不是宗教义务,”莱特希泽说道,就算违背它,“世贸组织的警员也无法采行强制措施”。